Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 14.185226 16.194217 18.348001 20.824263 23.587995 26.572935 30.035921
2025-09-14 11.441215 14.229782 17.441475 21.395349 26.111867 31.536862 38.226678
2025-09-21 9.695479 12.755192 16.447079 21.195138 27.101118 34.164364 43.205216
2025-09-28 8.022427 11.126317 15.037725 20.274898 27.042440 35.425421 46.518270
2025-10-05 7.338017 10.629763 14.928040 20.874172 28.796411 38.887398 52.594703
2025-10-12 6.710849 10.122740 14.726777 21.289251 30.278875 42.020950 58.349147
2025-10-19 6.002113 9.415840 14.170614 21.144433 30.952339 44.069846 62.714563
2025-10-26 5.379329 8.761685 13.616991 20.933065 31.479257 45.898047 66.811726
2025-11-02 4.909709 8.283048 13.263419 20.957631 32.302999 48.129058 71.509713
2025-11-09 4.538169 7.915097 13.034329 21.129652 33.320023 50.642745 76.669874
2025-11-16 4.149711 7.480972 12.664869 21.052569 33.945274 52.598730 81.086157
2025-11-23 3.781194 7.042776 12.250362 20.866971 34.377869 54.267932 85.123195
2025-11-30 3.503925 6.738425 12.033817 20.987655 35.299133 56.720983 90.452453
2025-12-07 3.345122 6.623760 12.115142 21.584055 36.981942 60.375315 97.704534
2025-12-14 3.053353 6.243894 11.723023 21.374809 37.366244 62.054537 102.017581
2025-12-21 2.670135 5.658934 10.935293 20.450272 36.539680 61.815562 103.366660
2025-12-28 2.570730 5.596220 11.048518 21.053149 38.226806 65.553124 110.985282
2026-01-04 2.450322 5.481166 11.058033 21.471665 39.618453 68.863580 118.034807
2026-01-11 2.259307 5.208018 10.759439 21.325647 40.042428 70.625820 122.674575
2026-01-18 2.076679 4.933688 10.437036 21.112735 40.332397 72.167811 126.996118
2026-01-25 1.939790 4.740937 10.253412 21.137471 41.028253 74.391096 132.481641
2026-02-01 1.831361 4.598295 10.155019 21.310787 41.987063 77.076491 138.799168
2026-02-08 1.703234 4.399886 9.931959 21.233124 42.487497 78.998653 143.901409